The annual exercise of forecasting terminal run or escapement is a critical aspect of management and conservation of salmonids coastwide. This project involves the completion of an automated computer program (henceforth called “ForecastR”) relying on the open-source statistical software R to generate age-specific forecasts using a variety of generic models including (i) simple and complex sibling regressions with the ability to include environmental covariates, (ii) time series models such as ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and naïve models, and (iii) mechanistic models such as average return rate models that depend on auxiliary data such as the number of outmigrant juveniles, the number of hatchery fish released or the number of spawners.
This project proposes to analyse the relationship between sockeye and pink salmon abundance and existing CPUE data from Canadian purse seine ITQ fisheries, years 2010-2014. This will entail: 1) obtaining catch data by set and location from individual purse seiners in Area 12 and comparing with indices of abundance by area. 2) Examining the special case situation in Area 29 where ITQ seiners have fished on delaying Fraser River sockeye (2010, 2014) and pink salmon (2013). 3) Exploring evidence for density dependence catchability in the ITQ fishery dynamics. 4) In consultation with PSC Staff, incorporate the above (if useful) within a Bayesian hierarchical methodology. 5) Review compliance with the requirements identified in the Kowal Letter to the Fraser River Panel (2002) and also with the Run-size estimation workshop (2003). And finally, 6) Develop a plan for additional sampling opportunities for the Panel’s consideration for implementation in future years.