Tag Archives: Escapement Estimate

Automating procedures for the forecasting of terminal run and escapement of Chinook, coho and chum salmon stocks using open-source statistical software

The annual exercise of forecasting terminal run or escapement is a critical aspect of management and conservation of salmonids coastwide. This project involves the completion of an automated computer program (henceforth called “ForecastR”) relying on the open-source statistical software R to generate age-specific forecasts using a variety of generic models including (i) simple and complex sibling regressions with the ability to include environmental covariates, (ii) time series models such as ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and naïve models, and (iii) mechanistic models such as average return rate models that depend on auxiliary data such as the number of outmigrant juveniles, the number of hatchery fish released or the number of spawners.

S18-VHP15A ForecastR: tools to automate forecasting procedures for salmonid terminal run and escapement

S16-I11 Automating procedures for forecasting of terminal run and escapement of Chinook, Coho and Chum salmon stocks using open-source statistical software

 

Burman River Chinook Salmon Mark-Recapture

Concern for West Coast Vancouver Island (WCVI) natural Chinook currently limits PSC fisheries in Southeast Alaska, the Haida Gwaii recreational fishery and particularly the Area F troll fishery in northern British Columbia and troll fisheries and some recreational fisheries on the WCVI. Although the Burman River is enhanced, the population is of sufficient size to estimate the escapement with precision, and thermally marked otolith sampling provides an estimate of the naturally spawned fraction.
The program will estimate the escapement of adult Chinook salmon to the Burman River, a PSC Chinook escapement indicator, using both closed population and open population mark-recapture techniques refined between 2009-2014. The project will also quantify age, sex and origin compositions. Estimates of abundance of the thermally marked hatchery fraction combined with a precise escapement estimate will provide important information to verify and support the WCVI Aggregate ratio estimation project by providing an independent reference point (the Burman River Chinook hatchery fraction, independent of Robertson Creek Hatchery stock) in the northern WCVI area.

S18-VHP11 Spawning escapements and origin of Chinook salmon at Burman River Report 2018

S17-VHP13 Burman River Chinook salmon mark-recapture 2017

S16-I17 Burman River Chinook Salmon Mark-Recapture Report 2016. Year 8

S15-I06 Burman River Chinook Salmon Escapement Indicator Mark-Recapture Experiment, 2015. Year 7

S14-I13 Burman River Open population mark-recapture estimation of ocean-type Chinook spawning escapements WCVI Report 2014

SSP13-01 Burman River Chinook Salmon Total Escapement Estimation Project, 2013

SSP12-01 Preliminary - Burman River Chinook Salmon Total Escapement Estimation Project, 2012

SSP11-06 Burman River Chinook Salmon Total Escapement Estimation Project, 2011

SSP10-03A Burman River Chinook Salmon Total Escapement Estimation Project, 2010

SSP-1A/B Burman River Chinook Salmon Total Escapement Estimation Project, 2009 (Year 1)

 

 

Chinook Salmon Escapement Estimation to the Skeena River Using Genetic Techniques

The Skeena River is host to the second largest aggregate of Chinook salmon in British Columbia. While the aggregate is a PSC escapement indicator stock, there are no biologically based escapement goals for this population. This project provides an annual escapement estimate for the aggregate as well as for the large component stocks. The estimate produced is comparable with the historic estimates produced using an estimate of variance. The Tyee Test fishery, which has been conducted since 1955, provides data such as age information that is matched to the genetic information. The combination of stock specific escapements with age composition forms the basis for escapement goals and benchmarks.
The Kitsumkalum River hosts one of the major Chinook populations in the Skeena watershed, and is a PSC exploitation rate indicator stock. The mark-recapture estimate produced in in a separate project forms the cornerstone for the expansions of the stock compositions observed at the Tyee Test fishery.
The project consists of genetic analyses of samples from Chinook salmon caught at the Tyee Test fishery, and escapement data from the Kitsumkalum mark-recapture program. Chinook salmon scale samples will be collected from the Tyee Test Fishery and the DNA from the samples will be compared against genetic baselines from Skeena Chinook salmon populations. The proportion identified as Kitsumkalum Chinook will be expanded to generate escapement estimates for the Skeena River aggregate using the mark-recapture estimate of escapement for the Kitsumkalum population.

N19-I34 Chinook Escapement Estimation to the Skeena River Using Genetic Techniques 2019

N18-VHP09 Chinook Escapement Estimation to the Skeena River using Genetic techniques Report 2018

N17-VHP13 Chinook Salmon Escapement Estimation to the Skeena River Using Genetic Techniques Report 2017

N16-I33 Chinook Salmon Escapement Estimation to the Skeena River Using Genetic Techniques 2016. Year 8

N15-I27 Chinook Salmon Escapement Estimation to the Skeena River Using Genetic Techniques 2015. Year 7

SSP14-09 Chinook Salmon Escapement Estimation to the Skeena River Using Genetic Techniques 2014. Year 6

SSP13-06 Chinook Salmon Escapement Estimation to the Skeena River Using Genetic Techniques 2013

SSP12-05 Chinook Salmon Escapement Estimation to the Skeena River using Genetic Techniques 2012. Year 4

SSP11-01 Chinook Salmon Escapement Estimation to the Skeena River Using Genetic Techniques 2011. Year 3

SSP10-01 Chinook Salmon Escapement Estimation to the Skeena River Using Genetic techniques 2010. Year 2

SSP-4 Chinook salmon Escapement Estimation to the Skeena River using Genetic techniques (Year 1)

 

 

Calibration of Assessment Methods for Fraser Sockeye Enumeration

Since 2007, with support from the Southern Boundary Restoration and Enhancement Fund, calibration work has been conducted on twenty-five Sockeye populations of various stream types in the Fraser and has led to the development of indices for aerially surveyed Sockeye populations on the following three stream types: i) medium sized, clear streams, ii) medium sized, partially turbid/tannic streams and iii) large sized, clear streams. Although this represents substantial progress, significant gaps still exist on the remaining stream types and lake spawning populations. Calibration work involves the comparison between estimates generated using high precision enumeration techniques (enumeration fences, sonar, and/or mark-recapture programs) and those generated using standard low precision visual techniques. As annual calibration opportunities on target populations are limited, calibration work over the long term will be required to satisfy the data requirements for all stream types.  The actual populations to be calibrated will be determined based on in-season estimates of abundance.

S18-FRP03 Calibration of Visual Assessment Methods for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)

S17-I06 Calibration of Visual Assessment Methods for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon Year 9

S16-I21 Calibration of Visual Assessment Methods for Fraser River Sockeye Report 2016

S15-I01 Calibration of Assessment Methods for Fraser Sockeye Enumeration 2015. Year 7

S14-I02 Calibration of Assessment Methods for Fraser Sockeye Enumeration 2014. Year 6

S13-I01 Calibration of Assessment Methods for Fraser Sockeye Enumeration 2013. Year 5

S12-I02 Calibration of Assessment Methods for Fraser Sockeye Enumeration 2012. Year 4

S11-I04 Calibration of Assessment Methods for Fraser Sockeye Enumeration 2011. Year 3

S10-I05 Calibration of Assessment Methods for Fraser Sockeye Enumeration 2010

S07-I05 Calibration of Assessment Methods for Fraser Sockeye Enumeration 2007

 

Albion-based Estimate of Total Fraser River Chum Escapement Using GSI and Estimate of Chilliwack River Chum Escapement

We propose to enumerate total Fraser River chum salmon escapement by conducting a high precision enumeration project on Chilliwack River escapement (e.g. mark-recapture or DIDSON) and combining the result with the ratio of Chilliwack chum to the total Fraser chum captured in the Albion test fishery. The proportion of Chilliwack chum at Albion will be determined using GSI on tissue from scale samples already collected during the test fishery.
This project will improve our ability to provide accurate spawning escapement estimates for Fraser River chum salmon. Accurate estimates are important to all aspects of Fraser River chum salmon management including annual stock run reconstruction, production forecasting, in-season terminal abundance estimates, the evaluation of management decisions/actions, and harvest sharing.

S17-I26 Albion-based estimate of total Fraser River Chum Salmon escapement using GSI at Albion and enumeration of Chilliwack River Chum Salmon escapement, PRESENTATION 2017

S16-I23 Albion-based Estimate of Fraser River Chum Escapement Using GSI and Estimate of Chilliwack River Chum Escapement Interim Presentation 2016

 

Boundary Area Coho Escapement

The Hugh Smith Lake coho salmon population is substantially exploited by mixed-stock fisheries in both the U.S. and Canada and is, therefore, a key indicator stock used to monitor total adult abundance and escapements, and the pattern and intensity of exploitation by these fisheries on populations in the northern boundary area. It is the only system in the southern portion of Southeast Alaska where a total count (with back-up mark-recapture estimate) of coho salmon escapement has been routinely collected since 1982. Its location 70 km southeast of Ketchikan makes it a particularly strategic indicator stock for boundary area fisheries. It has also been one of three key indicator stocks used to measure the overall abundance of wild coho salmon available to the Alaska troll fishery and to measure the exploitation rate by the fishery.
Escapement projections are made from both the cumulative weir count and estimation models based on recovery of coded-wire tags to provide real-time information for management of fisheries for escapement. Peak helicopter survey counts at other Boundary Area streams provide an index with greater coverage that complements higher resolution assessment at Hugh Smith Lake.

N19-I04 Boundary Area Coho Escapement 2019 Report

N18-I03 Boundary Area Coho Escapement Report

N17-I04 Boundary Area Coho Escapement Report 2017

N16-I57 Boundary Area Coho Escapement Report 2016

 

Hugh Smith Lake Coho Smolt Enumeration and Marking

The Hugh Smith Lake coho salmon population is substantially exploited by mixed-stock fisheries in both the U.S. and Canada and is, therefore, a key indicator stock used to monitor total adult abundance and escapements, and the pattern and intensity of exploitation by these fisheries on populations in the northern Boundary Area. Its location 70 km southeast of Ketchikan makes it a particularly strategic indicator stock for boundary area fisheries. It has also been one of three key coded-wire tagged indicator stocks used to measure the exploitation rate by the Alaska troll fishery and to estimate the overall abundance of wild coho salmon available to the fishery. Timely escapement projections are made from both the cumulative weir count and estimation models based on recovery of coded-wire tags to provide real-time information for management of fisheries for escapement goals.
The Hugh Smith Lake coho salmon population has been the only long-term, continuously operated wild coho indicator stock project in the northern boundary area, with a record of catch, escapement, smolt production, marine survival, and age composition estimates dating from 1982. The proposal would continue to fund operation of a smolt weir to enumerate and coded-wire tag coho salmon smolts emigrating from Hugh Smith Lake to generate total population estimates, including total smolt production, marine survival, exploitation rate, and catch by area, time, and gear type. Coho smolt estimates and tag recovery rates in the Southeast Alaska troll fishery will be used to generate inseason estimates of marine survival and total adult abundance for fishery management. Estimates of brood year smolt production and adult return by age class will be used to evaluate and refine the biological escapement goal. Counts and samples of sockeye salmon smolts are also obtained at the smolt weir and have been used to evaluate escapement goals and effectiveness of sockeye salmon stock enhancement efforts. The proposed project will continue a core stock assessment program needed to manage fisheries for coho salmon in the northern Boundary Area.

N16-I58 Hugh Smith Lake Coho Smolt Estimation and Marking Report Year 1 of 2

Genetic-Based Abundance Estimates for Snohomish River Chinook Salmon

This project, begun in 2012 by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife under the Sentinel Stocks Program to estimate the abundance of Chinook salmon spawners and effective breeders in the Snohomish River, continues today in partnership with the Tulalip Tribes of Washington using trans-generational genetic mark recapture (tGMR) and trans-generational rarefaction curve analysis (tRC). Additional objectives are to partition the genetic-based abundance estimate for natural spawning Chinook by origin, sex, and age, and assuming adequate data are acquired, and to develop a redd expansion calibration factor to adjust historical (or future) redd-based escapement estimates.
Funding is requested to collect and genotype subyearling offspring of the previous brood year, and to collect carcass samples from spawners in the fall. The Snohomish River basin is comprised of two Chinook salmon populations: the Skykomish River summer Chinook population (which includes Skykomish, mainstem Snohomish, and Pilchuck River) and the Snoqualmie River fall Chinook population. We expect to deliver tGMR and tRC abundance estimates for both populations for each brood year that is successfully sampled.

S18-VHP14B Skykomish River Juvenile Salmon Out-Migration Study 2018

S17-VHP21B Skykomish River juvenile salmon out-migration study

VHP16-02A Genetic-based abundance estimates for Snohomish River Chinook Report 2016

VHP15-05A Progress - Genetic-Based Abundance Estimates for Snohomish River Chinook Salmon (WDFW Component)

VHP15-05B Progress - Genetic-Based Abundance Estimates for Snohomish River Chinook Salmon (Tulalip Component)

SSP14-08 Progress - Genetic-Based Abundance Estimates for Snohomish River Chinook Salmon. Year 4

SSP13-10 Progress - Genetic-Based Abundance Estimates for Snohomish River Chinook Salmon. Year 3

SSP12-16 Progress - Genetic-Based Abundance Estimates for Snohomish River Chinook Salmon

Abundance Estimates for Stillaguamish River Chinook Salmon Using Trans-generational Genetic Mark Recapture

The primary objective of this trans-generational genetic mark-recapture (tGMR) project is to: 1) estimate the abundance of Chinook salmon spawners and effective breeders in the Stillaguamish River above the smolt trap site using genetic abundance methods. The secondary objectives of this study are to: 2) estimate the natural spawning Chinook salmon abundance by origin (hatchery or natural), sex and age, and 3) estimate a redd expansion calibration factor from historic redd-based escapement estimates and possible future redd counts. The data collected for this project also provide a genetic baseline for these population estimates, a genetic (parentage-based) estimate of the proportion of hatchery-origin spawners, and an estimate of relative reproductive success of hatchery spawners, because carcasses are classified by origin. Genetic sampling will be conducted during the fall spawning period, and smolt trapping will be conducted during the following spring.

S19-I08 Abundance estimates for Stillaguamish River Chinook salmon using trans-generational genetic mark recapture 2019 Report

S18-VHP12 Abundance estimates for Stillaguamish River Chinook salmon using trans-generational genetic mark recapture

S17-VHP17 2016 Broodyear Report Abundance estimates for Stillaguamish River Chinook salmon using trans-generational genetic mark recapture

VHP16-01: Abundance estimates for Stillaguamish River Chinook salmon using trans-generational genetic mark recapture 2015-2016

VHP15-06 Abundance Estimates for Stillaguamish River Chinook Salmon Using Trans-generational Genetic Mark Recapture. Year 1

SSP14-05 Abundance Estimates for Stillaguamish River Chinook Salmon. Year 5

SSP13-11 Abundance Estimates for Stillaguamish River Chinook Salmon. Year 4

 

 

Atnarko River Chinook Escapement Estimation

The Atnarko River was identified as a potential escapement and exploitation rate indicator for Central BC early summer Chinook, and in 2009 the Atnarko River Chinook stock was proposed as an exploitation rate indicator. It was funded under the Coded Wire Tag (CWT) Improvement program, and the purpose of the five-year mark-recapture program was to improve escapement estimates for early summer Chinook.
Since then, the program has met the data standard of a coefficient of variation (CV) of 15% or less. Continued mark-recapture estimates on the Atnarko River will build on the information thus far. The project will estimate the escapement of Chinook salmon and generate estimates such that the fraction of CWT fish is known relative to the wild and/or unmarked escapement, and this data is essential for Chinook run reconstruction calculations. This program is part of a comprehensive group of programs on Atnarko River Chinook salmon that includes the production of Chinook fry and CWT application (under separate submission to the Northern Fund) and terminal fishery monitoring.

N18-VHP12 Atnarko River Chinook Salmon Spawning Escapement Estimation Final 2018

N17-VHP05 Atnarko River Chinook Salmon Spawning Escapement Estimation Report 2017

N16-I30 Atnarko River Chinook Escapement Estimation Report 2016. Year 3

N15-I33 Atnarko River Chinook Escapement Estimation 2015. Year 2

N14-I33 Atnarko River Chinook Escapement Estimation 2014. Year 1