The United States and Canada have concluded a long-term, comprehensive Agreement under the Pacific Salmon Treaty. This Agreement provides new language for expired provisions of Annex IV of the Treaty and will guide the Commission in carrying out the salmon management and catch sharing responsibilities entrusted to it via the Treaty. Chapter 4 of the new Annex provides for the management of Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon by the Fraser River Panel in the Panel Area. The long-standing objectives for Panel management actions have been imbedded in the new agreement. These objectives are as follows: (a) obtain spawning escapement goals by stock or stock grouping; (b) meet Treaty defined international allocation; and (c) achieve domestic objectives. As well, Chapter 4 states that the Fraser River Panel shall manage its fisheries consistent with the provisions of the other chapters of Annex IV to ensure that the conservation needs and management requirements for other salmon species and other sockeye and pink salmon stocks are taken into account.

In 1999, the Fraser River Panel will manage Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon stocks in Panel Areas waters to achieve the above objectives. During the management season, which runs through early September, the Panel plans to meet in-person each Friday at the Richmond Inn, Richmond, B.C., beginning July 23.

As required by the Treaty, Fisheries and Oceans Canada has provided forecasts of Fraser River sockeye salmon returns by stock management group and for pink salmon returns in total. DFO has also provided spawning escapement targets by stock group. The forecast returns of Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon for 1999 total 8,248,000 and 8,148,000 fish, respectively. Sockeye forecasts and spawning escapement targets by stock management group are as follows:

Summer-run sockeye stocks (Chilko, Quesnel, Stellako and Late Stuart) are expected to provide most of the catch in 1999. Of these, the Chilko stocks are forecast to produce the largest return (2,949,000 fish). Significant production is also expected from Quesnel and Stellako stocks. Late-run Adams River sockeye will predominate in the Late-run stock management group. These four stocks are forecast to provide approximately 80% of the 1999 return. Important, but smaller returns of Early Stuart, Seymour, Scotch, Late Stuart, Birkenhead and Weaver stocks make up most of the remaining 20% of the sockeye run.

DFO’s forecast of the proportion of the 1999 Fraser River sockeye run that will migrate via Johnstone Strait (i.e., diversion rate) is 16%. This would be the lowest fraction of the run arriving via the northern route since 1988. In the period, 1989-1998, the average diversion rate has been 58%. Low diversion rates are related to low ocean temperatures near the north end of Vancouver Island. Sockeye arrival timing is also related to ocean temperatures. The lower than normal temperatures has led to a forecast of Early Stuart arrival timing which is slightly earlier than normal. The arrival timing of Summer and Late-run sockeye stocks will be provided by Canada at a later date. The graph below shows the relative abundance and timing of the major sockeye salmon stocks and for pink salmon.

Based on the pre-season forecast of 8,148,000 Fraser River pink salmon, Canada has set the spawning escapement target at 6,000,000 fish. Forecasts of Fraser pink salmon arrival timing and Johnstone Strait diversion rate are expected at a later date.

During the week of July 12-16, the Panel will develop a fishery management plan for the 1999 Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon runs in Panel Area waters. This plan will guide the Panel and PSC staff in designing regulations for the harvest of the stocks in Canadian and United States waters.

Early Stuart sockeye are migrating into the Fraser River at this time. Extremely high river water levels are expected to have negative impacts on the fish as they negotiate the difficult passage areas of the Fraser Canyon. In 1997, severe losses were sustained by Early Stuart sockeye that arrived during the high water conditions that year. Water levels also delayed implementation of Commission monitoring programs in the river, including the Mission hydroacoustic and lower Fraser gillnet test fishing programs, by one week. Area 20 (Juan de Fuca Strait) and Area 12 (Round Island) gillnet test fisheries and Lummi Island reef net observations, however, commenced on schedule. Initial assessment of the Early Stuart sockeye return points to an abundance that is lower than forecast by Canada. Based on this initial assessment, the Panel adopted a provisional run-size estimate of 150,000 Early Stuart sockeye at its meeting today.

Periodic news releases in this series will be provided by the Panel through the Commission to help inform all those interested in the progress of the runs during the fishing season.